Could the capture of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela have played a role, in some way, in the recent U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran?
Yesterday, Iran announced that the Strait of Hormuz was closed, warning it would fire on any ship attempting to pass. The move came after U.S. and Israeli attacks that killed Iran’s supreme leader, heightening tensions and putting a major portion of global oil supply at risk.
With about 20 percent of the world’s daily oil flowing through that narrow waterway, the stakes are clear. But what if safeguards were already quietly put in place? In January, U.S. forces captured Maduro, bringing Venezuela’s massive oil reserves under U.S. oversight.
Looking at the timing — Maduro captured, Venezuelan oil secured, Iran escalating, and the Strait of Hormuz threatened — it raises the question: could Maduro’s capture have been a strategic prelude to confrontation with Tehran?
Venezuela’s Oil Comes Under U.S. Control
Venezuela is home to roughly 303 billion barrels of crude, nearly a fifth of global reserves. After Maduro was removed, the U.S. gained effective control over these resources. Initial proceeds from Venezuelan oil sales were routed through Qatar to protect them from seizure, but they now go directly to accounts managed by the U.S. Treasury.
This shift is significant: it gives the U.S. direct access to a massive source of oil at a time when global markets are volatile and Iran is threatening key shipping lanes. “We’re going to have our very large United States oil companies — the biggest anywhere in the world — go in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure, the oil infrastructure,” Trump had said. By late February, the U.S. reported it had received over 80 million barrels from Venezuela, the largest haul in seven years.
Israel’s Role and Strategic Interests
Israel reacted quickly to Maduro’s capture. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called the operation “bold and historic,” and Israeli officials emphasized Venezuela’s long-standing ties with Iran, including alleged links to Hezbollah and the Revolutionary Guard.
For Israel, removing Maduro was not just about South America, it was about weakening Iran’s global networks. Venezuela had been seen as a strategic satellite for Iran in the Western Hemisphere, offering a foothold that could extend influence far beyond the Middle East. In this sense, the coup in Caracas had implications far larger than the region itself.
But beyond that, Israel too benefitted from Venezuelan oil. Shipments of Venezuelan oil began reaching Israel, marking the first sale since mid-2020, signaling a renewed cooperation between Caracas and Tel Aviv.
Oil, Iran, and the Strait of Hormuz
Iran has long used the Strait of Hormuz as leverage over global oil supplies. Historically, Iran has threatened to close the Strait but has never fully attempted to do so. Recently, however, Iranian officials warned they would fire on any ship trying to pass, escalating tensions to a level not seen in decades.
In this context, having Venezuelan oil under U.S. control provides a strategic safety net for both the U.S. and Israel. If Iran were to disrupt Middle Eastern oil flows, Venezuela could serve as an alternative supply, reducing the global impact of Tehran’s threats.
Conclusion: A Geopolitical Puzzle
It’s impossible to draw a straight line between Maduro’s capture and the war on Iran, yet the sequence is striking. This story is about seeing the pieces of a global puzzle line up in a way that suggests strategic planning across continents. It raises the idea that in geopolitics, events in one region can ripple far beyond their immediate surroundings, linking South America, the Middle East, and global oil markets in a single, complex chain.
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