Israelis are heading to the polls in an election that could determine whether Benjamin Netanyahu remains prime minister or finally loses power. But this isn’t a vote for a new president, and winning the most votes doesn’t automatically secure the premiership. With rival political camps competing for control of parliament and neither guaranteed a majority, the real question is who can form the next government. Here’s how the system works, why Netanyahu’s position is under pressure, and what the possible outcomes could mean for Israel.
First, What Are Israelis Actually Voting For?
Israelis are voting for the 120 members of the Knesset, the country’s parliament, not directly for a prime minister or president.
Israel has a parliamentary system, meaning the prime minister must secure enough support in parliament to form a government. President Isaac Herzog plays a largely ceremonial role but helps initiate the government-forming process after the election.
This distinction matters because the party that wins the most seats does not automatically get to govern. The deciding factor is which candidate can gather enough parliamentary support to form a coalition.
How Does Israel’s Electoral System Work?
Israel uses proportional representation: voters choose political parties, and seats are distributed according to each party’s share of the national vote. Parties must receive at least 3.25% to enter the Knesset.
With 120 seats in parliament, a government generally needs the support of at least 61 lawmakers to secure a majority. Since no single party is expected to reach that number alone, parties negotiate to form coalitions, often trading support for influence over policies and ministerial positions.
This is why winning the most votes and forming a government are two different things. A party can come first but still struggle to find enough partners to govern.
Why Is Netanyahu’s Political Future on the Line?
Netanyahu is seeking to retain power after a period that has reshaped Israeli politics. The events of October 7, 2023, exposed major security failures and intensified questions about the government’s responsibility. The wars that followed, particularly the genocide in Gaza, have further fuelled criticism of his leadership.
His coalition has also faced disputes over exemptions from military service for many ultra-Orthodox Jewish men, with critics arguing that the burden should be shared more equally as the military faces prolonged demands.
Meanwhile, Netanyahu’s domestic corruption trial and the International Criminal Court’s arrest warrant have added to the controversy surrounding his leadership. The election is therefore a test not only of his popularity but also of whether his political alliances can survive and keep him in office.
“I am not certain of my victory, and I am very worried,” Netanyahu has admitted during an interview with Radio North.
Who Is Trying to Replace Him?
The election is not a simple two-party contest. Several parties are competing, and their ability to work together could prove just as important as their individual results.
Netanyahu’s camp: He leads Likud and relies on right-wing, far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties, including Otzma Yehudit, Religious Zionism, Shas and United Torah Judaism. Their support is essential to his chances of forming another government.
The opposition: Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief who leads the centrist Yashar party, is among Netanyahu’s main challengers. He lost his son and two nephews during Israel’s genocide in Gaza. Other opposition figures include Naftali Bennett, Yair Golan and Avigdor Lieberman. While they share an interest in ousting Netanyahu, they differ on several major policy questions.
Arab-led parties: Parties representing Arab citizens of Israel, including Ra’am and the Joint List, could hold the balance of power if neither main camp secures a majority. However, resistance among some Jewish-led opposition parties to a formal coalition with Arab parties complicates the path to an alternative government.
The challenge for Netanyahu’s opponents is clear: agreeing that he should go is not the same as agreeing on who should replace him.
What Are the Exit Polls Telling Us?
With around half the votes counted, projections put Netanyahu’s bloc at 55 seats, compared with 49 for Eisenkot’s opposition bloc and 16 for Palestinian parties. These are provisional projections, not final results, and the numbers may change as counting continues.
The key takeaway is that neither side appears guaranteed a majority. Smaller parties could prove decisive.
The number to watch is 61. It is the threshold that determines whether either side can turn its election performance into a functioning government.
What Happens Next? Four Possible Scenarios
1. Netanyahu Forms Another Government
If Likud and its allies secure enough seats, Netanyahu could remain prime minister. He might also win support from parties outside his existing coalition. However, a narrow majority would leave him dependent on smaller parties and vulnerable to disagreements within his government.
2. The Opposition Builds a Majority
If Eisenkot and other opposition leaders agree on a coalition that commands at least 61 seats, Netanyahu could lose the premiership. But the opposition’s ideological differences mean that turning a shared desire for change into a workable government may be difficult.
3. Arab-Led Parties Become Kingmakers
If neither camp reaches a majority, Arab-led parties could become pivotal to negotiations. Their support might help an opposition-led government reach the necessary numbers, either through coalition membership or support from outside the government. Political resistance to such an arrangement remains a major obstacle.
4. Israel Faces Another Political Deadlock
If no candidate can assemble a viable coalition, negotiations could stall and another election may eventually follow. Netanyahu’s outgoing government would continue in a caretaker capacity in the meantime, leaving the country with political uncertainty rather than an immediate change in leadership.
When Will We Know the Results?
The first glimpse of the election outcome is out. This provides an early indication of how the parties may have performed, although the figures can change as votes are counted.
The final tally is expected around Friday, and the official results are due by November 4.
However, counting the votes is only part of the process. Once the results are confirmed, President Isaac Herzog will consult party leaders before assigning a candidate the task of forming a government. If neither camp has a clear majority, negotiations could stretch on for weeks.
In other words, election night should offer a clearer picture of Netanyahu’s chances, but determining who will actually lead Israel may take considerably longer.
The Bottom Line
Israel’s election is a test of Netanyahu’s political survival, but it is also a test of whether a divided parliament can produce a stable government.
If Netanyahu retains enough allies, he could stay in office. If the opposition assembles a viable majority, his long tenure could end. And if neither side can bridge the gap, Israel could face another period of political deadlock.
Ultimately, the question is not simply who wins the most votes. It is who can build a government — and whether Netanyahu’s opponents can agree on what comes after him.
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