The Cost of War: How the Russian Invasion Could Potentially Affect Egypt
Dr. Ashraf Ghorab, Economic expert and the Vice President of the Arab Union for Social Development, said that the Russian Invasion of Ukraine will have a direct negative effect on the international economy, especially with the current economic situation that the world lives in post the COVID-19 pandemic and the inflation wave that is hitting the economy through the globe.
Adding that the inflation caused a rapid increase in the food commodities prices alongside other products. He also clarified that this negative effect will escalate quickly if the tension between Russia and Ukraine evolved into an actual war on the ground.
Ghorab said that Egypt will definitely be affected by these escalations and the food commodities will be the most affected especially with Egypt having most of its wheat imports coming from Russia and Ukraine. He also praised the swift reaction of the Egyptian government within the past few days to ensure having other sources of wheat imports through 14 different countries, in order to have different options in case the current situation in Europe escalates; additionally, he pointed out that Egypt has a strategic stockpile of wheat that can hold for up to 5 months and that the local production which starts mid-April will increase the strategic stockpile to 9 months.
The above chart clarifies that Egypt is the second biggest country on the Ukranian wheat imports list.
Ghorab clarified that the crisis between Russia and Ukraine will definitely cause a big leap in the grain prices worldwide, that includes wheat especially, which will lead to an increase in the prices of oil which is about to reach 100 dollars per barrel. Since Ukraine is the main source for the world’s imports of wheat, barley, and corn and the drop in its production can affect the prices of the meat market all over the world, including Egypt which will bear extra burdens to provide these products to the people.
The increase in the petroleum products prices will only benefit the producing countries while disturbing the entire world’s market and cause so much pressure on the rest of humanity, while the war will affect Egypt directly by depriving the tourism market of the Russian and Ukrainian tourist delegations which make up most of the tourism economy in Egypt.
