Inside Israel’s Undeclared Nuclear Weapons Program

While Israel insists it will never allow Iran to develop a nuclear weapon, it remains the only country in the Middle East known to possess a nuclear arsenal, albeit through a secret, undeclared program.

Though Israel has never officially confirmed its nuclear weapons program, evidence over decades — from leaked documents to expert reports — points to a discreet yet formidable stockpile. Here’s a breakdown of what’s known, suspected, and still unclear.

How Many Nuclear Warheads Does Israel Have?

Most expert estimates agree that Israel has at least 90 nuclear warheads. Both the Federation of American Scientists and SIPRI support this number. However, due to Israel’s refusal to confirm any details, the real number could be higher, with some experts believing it has the capacity to produce hundreds more.

Where Are These Weapons Built?

The heart of Israel’s nuclear activity is believed to be the Dimona nuclear reactor in the Negev Desert. Formally called the Negev Nuclear Research Center, the site is heavily guarded and rarely seen by the public.

In 2018, Prime Minister Netanyahu gave a rare speech in front of the facility, warning enemies that “Those who threaten to wipe us out put themselves in a similar danger, and in any event will not achieve their goal.”

The Origins of the Program

The Israel Atomic Energy Commission was founded in 1952, with nuclear physicist Ernst David Bergmann as its first chair. Bergmann viewed the nuclear bomb as a necessity for Jewish survival, famously stating it would ensure “we shall never again be led as lambs to the slaughter.”

A Policy of Nuclear Ambiguity

Israel has long practiced a policy of ambiguity, refusing to confirm or deny having nuclear weapons. A declassified 1969 memo to President Nixon revealed that Israel interpreted its pledge “not to be the first to introduce nuclear weapons” to the Middle East to mean it could possess them as long as it didn’t test, declare, or deploy them publicly.

The Mordechai Vanunu Leak

In 1986, Mordechai Vanunu, a former technician at the Dimona plant, shared secret information and photos of the reactor with The Sunday Times in the UK.

His disclosures shocked the world and suggested Israel had enough plutonium for up to 200 nuclear warheads. Vanunu was later abducted by Mossad, returned to Israel, and imprisoned for 18 years.

Jimmy Carter Publicly Confirmed Israel’s Nuclear Arsenal

In 2008, former U.S. President Jimmy Carter became the first U.S. leader to publicly acknowledge Israel’s nuclear stockpile.

At a news conference, Carter stated, “The U.S. has more than 12,000 nuclear weapons, the Soviet Union (Russia) has about the same, Great Britain and France have several hundred, and Israel has 150 or more.” His remarks offered rare public confirmation of what had long been an open secret in international circles.

What Kind of Nuclear Weapons Does Israel Likely Have?

Israel’s nuclear arsenal is widely believed to consist of fission bombs — the same kind used in WWII on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Experts are unsure if Israel has developed thermonuclear (fusion) bombs, which are far more powerful. One analyst noted that, due to Israel’s small size, using such weapons would risk significant fallout within its own borders.

Israel’s Nuclear Triad: How It Would Launch a Nuclear Strike

Israel is suspected of having a nuclear triad, meaning it can deliver nuclear weapons via air, land, and sea:

Sea: Dolphin-class submarines are thought to be modified to carry nuclear-armed cruise missiles, offering Israel a second-strike capability if attacked.

Air: Israeli F-16 and F-35 fighter jets are capable of dropping gravity bombs (unguided nuclear bombs).

Land: The Jericho missile series — especially Jericho III — is believed to have ranges exceeding 5,500 km, potentially reaching parts of Europe or Asia.

Israel Isn’t Under the U.S. Nuclear Umbrella

Unlike other allies, Israel is not protected under the U.S. nuclear umbrella, a defense pact meant to deter nuclear attacks on non-nuclear nations. Experts say this absence acts as an indirect acknowledgment that Israel already has its own nuclear deterrent — and doesn’t need American cover.

Gaddafi Called Out Nuclear Double Standards

Libyan former leader Muammar Gaddafi once argued that if the world did not disarm Israel, then the Palestinians should be allowed to acquire nuclear weapons themselves.

He criticized what he called the international community’s “double standards,” where Israel is allowed to keep a hidden nuclear arsenal while Iran faces intense pressure not to build one. His comments reignited debates about fairness, transparency, and power imbalances in global nuclear policy.

Will Israel Ever Use Nuclear Weapons?

Because Israel hasn’t admitted to possessing nuclear weapons, its official nuclear doctrine is unknown. Experts say the weapons are likely reserved for extreme existential threats, but using them would be dangerous even for Israel itself due to regional fallout and geographic proximity to its enemies.

Final Thoughts

While global attention remains on Iran’s nuclear ambitions, Israel’s own undeclared arsenal is arguably the region’s most established and advanced. Shielded by secrecy and decades of strategic ambiguity, Israel’s nuclear weapons continue to shape Middle Eastern power dynamics, without ever being publicly seen.

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