A question I find after every problem that occurs in Egypt – who is responsible for what happened? Who do we need to put in a position of accountability? Response from government and media is always one and the same – let us form a committee of investigations. This happened in all the events in the aftermath of the 18-days uprising; in Maspiro, Mohmed Mahmoud, Maglis El Wozara , Ministry of Interior and Ministry of Defense. Now, it seems to me that our leaders have not yet learnt from this mistake with the last event that occurred in Rafah , Sinai a couple of days ago, leaving 16 soldiers killed.
Let us indulge in a deeper analysis of this scene after wishing our martyrs to rest in peace. May god forgive them all.
Let us first ask who the main beneficiaries of such an attack are. There are several entities that may be put under the spotlight here.
The number one conspiracy theory will be as always: Israel.
Israel got some people, gave the equipment and the money to complete this transnational crime on Egyptian soil, as to then have an argument and claim that the Egyptian state is failing to secure its borderlines with Israel and therefore is breaching the Camp David Peace Accords. Consequently, Israel will have the right to protect its sovereignty against any kind of danger coming from the Egyptian side. Proofing the Israeli conspiracy theory is the announcement by US Sec. of State Hillary Clinton stating that the US is ready to help Egypt securitize Sinai. Right after that a statement came a very similar EU statement. Now an average Egyptian would think why? Why is the US ready to securitize Sinai at this particular point in time: to really secure Egypt, or to further secure Israel?
In second place comes the remnants of the old regime – a very vague, but potentially true, argument. In order to put the new elected President in a bad position and to argue that he cannot secure our borders from our enemies (Israel), the old regime may have plotted this attack on their own fellow Egyptian soldiers. With power cuts and lack of water, the inability to secure the borders is a cherry on top to get the president and his cabinet twirling in circles. Whether the old regime has the tools and money to do so remains a question of uncertainty though.
Last but not least, come the Muslim Brotherhood and the Freedom and Justice Party. It is hard to believe, but let me explain how it is the most possible in my opinion.
The Egyptian President did three things that may actually be related to this incident. First he issued the release of the Jihadists leaders, who were sentenced to death in the 1990s, to show he is exercising his powers. These Jihadist leaders are known for their connections with three main Islamic fundamentalists groups: Jamaat Al Jihad , El Takfeer wal Hejrah and El Tableegh wal Daawa. These groups are known for their violent acts in the 1990s with the killings of tourists in Luxor being the highlight then.
Second he announced the opening of the borders between Egypt and Gaza, with limited restrictions. This allows, in my opinion, a more easy way to smuggle people and weapons without proper security surveillance.
Thirdly, a meeting took place at the same timing between Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi and Ismail Haneya leader of the non-elected Palestinian authority “Hamas” of the Gaza Strip. This meeting shows a pattern that the leadership in Egypt is talking – dealing with a political force that is not legitimately in power, without putting into consideration whether Hamas’ illegitimacy is legal and fair.
What does this mean? It means that the Muslim Brotherhood had likely sealed a deal with Hamas to organize such an attack in order to undermine the Egyptian army’s sovereignty in Sinai. The Muslim Brotherhood would then argue that the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, due to its involvement in the political affairs of the country, is failing to do its main and most important job – defending the country and preserving its sovereignty.
A series of changes took place after this incident in the security apparatus in Egypt. The Chief of Intelligence, Chief of Military Police, Chief of Sinai Security, Governor of Sinai as well as Chief of Security of Cairo were dismissed for their lack of responsibility. Now of course these positions can not be left empty, and if these positions are filled with Muslim Brotherhood members, or people affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood, then my argument is self explanatory.
In spite of all what I am arguing, what happened is inhumane and cannot be tolerated by anyone for any reason. We have a long way to go and a lot yet to change. Our roles now are not influential due to a lot of factors that I will explain in further writings, but we still have a role to keep a wide eye open and equip ourselves more until the time comes for us to play the protagonist role for our beloved country.
