Maria’s note: Egyptian (R)evolution

The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces continue to play a historical master stoke that is leaving everyone dumbfounded. In less than a week SCAF, hand-to-hand with the Supreme Constitutional Court, has declared the Islamist-ruled Parliament invalid and issued amendments to the interim constitution that safeguards their interests and power in the Egyptian political arena.

However, SCAF is not alone in the game and eventually their strategies might turn against themselves. The Parliament has been disbanded and, as stipulated in the amendments, SCAF retains legislative power. Nevertheless, members of the dissolved parliament do not accept the verdict of the Supreme Constitutional Court and plan to gather today and decide their response to it. Parallel to this, the role and validity of the Constituent Assembly appointed by the suspended parliament are still uncertain.

SCAF insisted on Monday on its will to hand over the authority to the elected president by the end of this month.

In addition to this, we should not forget that the official results of the presidential elections have to be officially announced, either Wednesday or Thursday.

On one hand, if there is not a last-minute surprise and Morsi wins, we will probably see confrontation between Muslim Brotherhood and SCAF over the distribution of powers. The Brotherhood does not recognize the issued amendments as legitimate and they demand a referendum on the parliament. Perhaps, there will also be a lack of a political agenda, as it is the first time in history the Brotherhood has political power in Egypt. 

On the other hand, if Shafiq wins, then we will probably witness demonstrations and protests against his appointment.

In any case, analyzing the results of the runoffs the coming president will not have real legitimation. Moreover, he will act as a marionette of SCAF and never as a free leader.

Immersed in this confusing and turbulent situation, there is also time for a positive evaluation. Unquestionably, there is no way back to Mubarak’s era; Egypt has deeply changed. The political apparatus, which was inexistent one year and a half ago, has start working by fits and starts. Everywhere you go peoplehave an opinion about politics and the current situation, which was not the case one year and a half ago. Moreover, there is no fear to take to the streets and fight for the people’s demands, which did not happen one year and a half ago.

Yes, it is an imperfect and difficult democratic transition –if ever democratic- but if managed well by the people, this situation will be positively fruitful for Egypt. SCAF needs to go, people must keep focused. Nobody said it was easy.